The Office of Rail and Road (ORR) and Network Rail have sought to understand if Network Rail’s Strategic Business Plan (SBP) forecasts of Scope 1 and 2 carbon emissions are realistic and supported by robust benchmarks, management and operational approaches for the period from April 2024 to March 2029, known as Control Period 7 (CP7). In the role of Independent Reporter (IR), an AMCL-led team comprising AMCL, AQC, CPCS, and Eracura was appointed by ORR and Network Rail to undertake a two-stage review of Network Rail’s Scope 1 and 2 carbon emissions forecasts for CP7.
Stage 2
Network Rail reviewed the Stage 1 findings and developed a response in the form of an Action Plan setting out the proposed approach to address each of the Stage 1 recommendations. Network Rail also provided updated CP7 emissions forecasts for review by the IR which were designed to improve the consistency of presentation and reporting. The IR has found that the updated trajectories provided by the Regions for review provide a more consistent set of forecasts of CP7 decarbonisation than available for Stage 1 review, but variance and inconsistency still remain. The IR’s main findings have been:
- the revised forecasts all predict potential carbon reductions that well exceed the SBP targets, in particular when Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) and grid decarbonisation are included;
- variance in the Regions’ forecasts relate to a range of factors including the contribution of emissions sources to each Region’s baseline footprint, the methodologies and assumptions made in the forecasts, the funding secured for CP7, uncertainty in baseline energy consumption and emissions, and the success of decarbonisation during CP6; and
- the result of this is, while there is a good level of detail in each of the forecasts, forecast savings have sufficient inconsistency and uncertainty to limit the ability to set fair Region-specific updated targets or stretch targets at the time of writing;
- Network Rail’s response to the recommendations in the form of an Action Plan sets a robust and appropriate high level process for addressing the IR Stage 1 recommendations, with clearly defined timescales, ownership and accountability; and
- Provided the work set out in the Action Plan is well planned, robustly completed and implemented, it will place Network Rail in a strong position to deliver on the requirements of the HLOSs, DfT’s Rail Environment Policy Statement and TS's Rail Services Decarbonisation Action Plan, achieve large reductions in Scope 1 and 2 emissions during CP7, keep Network Rail ahead of its Science Based Targets Initiative (SBTi) trajectory, and place it in a robust position for PR28 and CP8; and
- A further nine recommendations have been made for Network Rail to consider in addressing the Stage 1 recommendations and developing its Delivery Plans for CP7. These include alignment of approaches between Route Services and regions, deciding upon an approach for allocation of emissions from rail-based machines, accelerating the programme to rollout ZEV vehicles, developing stretch targets and agreeing a future approach to include SF6 and refrigerant emissions